We have reached the final week of the Premier League season and with a trio of games being played tonight (Thu 19th May) plus a full complement of ten games kicking off at 4pm UK Time on Sunday 22nd May, the final chapter in the 2022/23 season will be written.
The headline act will be decided at the Etihad and Anfield, where both Manchester City and Liverpool face home games to complete their season.
City lead Liverpool buy a point heading into the final week of the season and they know a home win against Aston Villa will hand them the league title.
Liverpool must win against Wolves and then hope Villa can either draw or win away to Manchester City in order to claim their third domestic trophy of the season and complete a rare domestic treble (only achieved previously a few years back, ironically by Manchester City).
And you can bet there will be a few punters enjoying a wager on the outcome of these two games this weekend with sites like bet365 Sport.
However, the title race is not the only big news story this weekend with places to be decided in the Champions League, Europa League, Europa Conference League and which team goes down alongside Watford and Norwich City.
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However, before we can focus on the games this weekend, let’s first take a look at the three matches to be played tonight, which could have a huge impact on the battle for the Champions League places, and on the relegation dogfight.
These games have all been rearranged after fixtures were moved or postponed for a variety of reasons earlier on in the season.
At the top end of the table, Chelsea face Leicester at Stamford Bridge knowing that with a two-point gap to Spurs in fourth, and with a much better goal difference, a win or draw is 99.99% likely to be enough for them to earn third spot outright.
However, even if Chelsea lose tonight, a win or draw against Watford at the weekend would still likely confirm them as third place in the table. Spurs need Chelsea to lose both games in order to stand any chance of finishing third and that is unlikely.
The other two games have massive implications at the bottom of the table in the relegation battle.
A win for Everton against Crystal Palace would ensure the Toffee’s safety.
Regardless of whether they win, lose or draw, Burnley are going to need a result on the final day in order to stand a chance of staying up. However, with a win or draw here, they would go above Leeds on goal difference and out of the drop zone before the final day meaning they’d only need to match or better Leeds’ result to stay up.
However, if Everton lose or draw, and Burnley win, Burnley would go above Leeds and Everton (though still not safe) and it would mean that Burnley would be safe if Leeds or Everton fail to win their last game of the season.
There are many permutations possible between the three teams, but tonight’s games could be absolutely vital in deciding who eventually stays up.
All the games listed below kick off at 4pm on Sunday 22nd May.
These two games will decide the destiny of the Premier League title. Manchester City just need to beat Aston Villa in order to secure the title, while Liverpool must beat Wolves and hope that Manchester City either draw or lose to Aston Villa in order for the Reds to clinch their second Premier League title in three years.
It is almost a carbon copy of three seasons ago when City went into the final game a point ahead of Liverpool, with City away to Brighton and Liverpool at home to Wolves. However, City easily won 4-1 at the AMEX, while Liverpool won 2-0 at Anfield meaning City won the title by a point.
Liverpool fans are hoping that their extensive Villa connections can help their former clubs. Villa boss Steven Gerrard is a legend at Liverpool and arguably has his best chance to win a league title for Liverpool as a Villa boss. Villa also count ex-Reds Danny Ings and Philippe Coutinho as key men in their team.
However, a quick look at the recent head-to-head records between City and Villa do not make good reading for Liverpool fans. City have won all the last eight and 11 of the last 12 matches between the two teams, drawing the other. They have not lost or drawn to Aston Villa at home in the Premier League since a 2-0 defeat to Villa in 2007.
It’s hard to see Manchester City throwing this away, especially given their record over Aston Villa in recent times, but remember, Villa beat a strong Liverpool side 7-2 at Villa Park last season and there is that strong Liverpool connection to factor in which will make Villa highly motivated here.
Villa are 16/1 to win the game and it is 6/1 the draw, and in truth City should win here.
And with Liverpool having to win at Anfield, I can’t see the Reds slipping up at home against a Wolves side not in the best of form.
These five games will determine the final European spots next season. Chelsea may already be qualified in third place if they got a positive result against Leicester on Thursday night, which would mean Spurs just need a point or better away to Norwich to qualify in fourth, while Arsenal would need Spurs to lose and to beat Everton to pip their North London rivals to the final Champions League spot in the table.
Whoever finishes fifth out of Arsenal or Spurs will enter the Europa League and the two games involving Manchester United and West Ham will decide who joins them. A United win would ensure they claim the final spot in the competition, but a draw or defeat to Palace, allied to a win for West Ham would see the Hammers climb above them into the final Europa League qualifying spot.
Whoever finishes 7th out of United or West Ham will be in the Europa Conference League next season.
These are the three games that will decide who goes down. Everton may be safe at this point if they beat Crystal Palace on Thursday night, which would render their game against Arsenal meaningless in the relegation battle.
The other two teams would then battle it out with Burnley’s result on Thursday night determining whether they or Leeds hold the advantage here.
All kinds of permutations are possible and any of the three could go down, but I think it may well be Leeds that could be facing the drop after the end of the three games here.
It all promises to be a very exciting final week of what has been a superb Premier League season!
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