Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson is credited with the quote “A week is a long time in politics”, but over the last few years, the same can be said for politics betting too!
Sites like bet365 Sport are amongst many that will allow punters to enjoy a range of politics betting markets. Ranging from who will be the next Prime Minister, to who will take over as the next leader as one of the main political parties and even down to who will win one of the many by-elections that take place throughout a typical year.
And of course, there is politics betting interest in markets abroad too, notably as to who will eventually win the race to the White House when the United States goes to the polls in November 2024.
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Ebb And Flow of Politics Betting Odds
It is not difficult to understand the appeal of politics betting. Like it or loathe it, politics affects us all in many different ways and there is the same level of tribalism that you get in even the most passionate of sports.
What also makes it appealing is that it can be a very fractious market. The ebb and flow of politics is such that one week, a politician can go from the potential saviour of their political party, to being relegated to the back benches and largely forgotten about due to a comment or action that they take.
Tied to this of course can be that politician’s odds on a particular betting market. Such as being the next Prime Minister, or the leader of their party. These odds can suddenly go from being odds on, to lengthy outside odds in the space of a relatively short space of time.
Let’s now look back at some of the strange happenings in politics in recent times and how they have shaped the odds for several different politics betting markets available today at bet365 Sport.
Politics Betting – Moments the Landscape Shifted
Back in 2019, the Labour party seemed unelectable with then-leader Jeremy Corbyn being a polarising figurehead. Loved by some, loathed by an equal number of others. A fractured Labour party was blitzed in the general election by the Conservative Party under the leadership of the eccentric old Etonian Boris Johnson.
First came Brexit, for which Mr Johnson was a major proponent. And soon, it was clearly apparent those that had campaigned for the vote to leave Europe, clearly had underestimated just how much this would cost the UK. Not just financially, but in terms of so many aspects of day-to-day life.
Then came the pandemic, which was nothing short of a national disaster, especially for the Prime Minister. The lack of decisiveness on when to close borders, the insistence that the country should keep going for the economy and that it was ‘just old people’ who were dying, the PPE scandal, the care home scandal, Partygate, the pandemic was as much a political nightmare for those in power as it was a social nightmare for those living through it.
The Labour party, now under Keir Starmer, seemed to have found a more malleable middle ground and as the Tory party descended into in-fighting, Johnson resigned as PM, followed by the horrific short-term of Liz Truss as PM, whose scandalous decision making saw the UK on the brink of an economic collapse.
Rishi Sunak took over and has been firefighting since, with the huge fallout from the time of Boris Johnson’s as PM still resonating with the electorate. However, the PM has had his own scandals to deal with such as the Rwanda repatriation scheme, the overt racism of prominent Tory donors, his wife’s non-dom status and the defection of the ex-Tory Party deputy chairman to Reform UK last week.
A couple of humiliating by-election defeats and the momentum in UK politics has swung, if the latest odds from bet365 Sport are accurate.
UK General Election Politics Betting Odds & Markets
- Most Seats
In the Most Seats market, Labour are now 1/10 to win the most seats at the next General Election, with the Conservatives, who were odds on at the last election, now 6/1. It makes poor reading for the Lib Dems and Greens who are 200/1 and 500/1 respectively.
- Overall Majority
The overall majority is important at a general election as it means that the party has enough seats to form a government. Bet365 has Labour as 2/11 to achieve this, with the Conservatives a shocking 12/1. There is a third option of No Overall Majority, a hung parliament, which is a 9/2 shot.
- Government after next General Election
There are lots of options for this market but the shortest priced favourites are all based on a Labour election win. A Labour majority is a 2/11 chance, with a Labour Minority 5/1 and a Labour-Lib Dem Coalition taking control a 10/1 shot.
The Conservatives shortest price is a Conservative Minority at 10/1, with a Majority at 12/1.
- Prime Minister after the Election
It makes grim reading for Conservative party supporters with current PM Rishi Sunak a 6/1 chance to be prime minister after the next election. David Cameron is 16/1, with Penny Mordaunt 22/1, Nigel Farage at 25/1 and Boris Johnson 33/1.
Keir Starmer is currently 1/10 to be the prime minister when the next election takes place later in the year.
Next Permanent Party Leader
- Conservatives
It is assumed that Rishi Sunak will likely be ousted as leader of the Conservatives if he loses the next election and the race is on already for his successor.
Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt are the current market leaders to replace Sunak when he does go, both at 3/1. Suella Braverman is 6/1 with James Cleverly a 15/2 shot. Priti Patel is 11/1, Robert Jenrick 12/1 and former PM’s Boris Johnson and David Cameron are 18/1 and 20/1 respectively.
- Labour
While Keir Starmer seems likely to be around for a while yet, markets are open on who will be his eventual successor as leader of the Labour Party. Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is the 7/2 favourite with Wes Streeting 11/2, Rachel Reeves 6/1, Lisa Nandy 13/2, Angela Rayner 7/1 and Yvette Cooper 10/1.
US Presidential Election
Betting for the US Presidential election in November 2024 sees Donald Trump the 5/6 favourite to be re-elected as president with incumbent president Joe Biden 13/8 to win a second term.
So if you like politics betting, then do check out the raft of markets on offer at bet365 and keep an eye on them because, as that famous quotation stated, a week is indeed a long time in politics and things can change very quickly indeed!
