It is often said that a week is a long time in politics.
In the UK at the moment, it seems that barely a day goes by without something incredible happening, as was the case yesterday as fresh from firing her home secretary the day before, Liz Truss quit as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party.
The irony of it all is that given her name, Truss now lacked the support she needed in order to push through what she called her “low tax, high growth” strategy for the UK.
Which has so far resulted in the value of the pound plummeting to record lows, inflation now at 10.1%, huge increases in utility bills and now a massive increase in mortgage rates that will plunge millions of house owners into crippling financial difficulties and at risk of losing their home.
That’s some going in 44 days as PM, especially when you consider for the first week or so she was technically still on holiday from her day job in Westminster.
It also means that in the much-publicised head-to-head run by the Daily Star, Liz Truss failed in her bid to outlast a wet lettuce.
So, having had one lengthy campaign to appoint a new leader of the Conservative Party, and thereby a new prime minister throughout the summer, we are now back to square one with a new leadership contest set to take place.
And of course, that means that there is now plenty of interest in which party members are the ones to back with bet365 Sport as the company offers odds on which political figurehead will step forward and gain the support of at least 100 MPs to go forward to the ballot.
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That is because the Chairman of the 1922 Committee has announced that this leadership contest will last just one week and that to stand on the ballot, an MP will need the support of at least 100 other Conservative MPs at Westminster.
That little caveat has had a very interesting effect on the betting for this new market.
Who Will Be The Next Conservative Party Leader/Prime Minister?
With candidates requiring the support of at least 100 other MPs, this has narrowed down the field as to who could become the next Conservative leader quite considerably.
In fact, a quick look at the list of candidates reveals that there are only three names at the moment that seem likely to land the support of 100 or more MPs ahead of next week’s ballot.
Let’s take a look at who they are:
- Rishi Sunak – 4/6 favourite
Rishi Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer in Boris Johnson’s government, was the opponent that Liz Truss defeated in the race to become PM barely a month ago.
Since then, many of the predictions the former chancellor had made about Truss’s economic plans for the country, such as sky-rocketing inflation and mortgage rates and a falling pound value, have indeed come to pass.
After losing the vote to Truss, Sunak has kept a relatively low profile but the fact that some of his predictions of what would happen if Truss got into power have since proven correct, has resonated with many members within the Conservative party.
Sunak will likely cruise to having 100 of his fellow MPs support him as he will not only have his own supporters, but he will likely have claimed the support of other MPs who had previously backed Truss.
However, last night what appeared to be a relatively straightforward route to the leadership of the party suddenly became more difficult when a somewhat unexpected candidate threw their hat into the ring and immediately became second-favourite for the role.
- Boris Johnson – 11/4
Remember him? Well Boris is back and seeking another term as Conservative Party leader, hoping that in the 44 days of chaos that have followed his standing down as Prime Minister, have led to many wanting him back at all costs.
There’s no doubt that Johnson still enjoys strong support amongst the Conservative-leaning members of the UK population.
However, there are also an equally vociferous number who do not want him back either.
While Boris’ achievements as leader are notable, his failures and behaviour have diminished the support he had within the party and it is likely that Johnson would likely need to offer an Olive Branch to his former chancellor Sunak in order to gain enough party support to return.
Especially, when you consider the same MPs he needs the support of now, are those that ousted him from that very role just a few months ago.
Currently, Johnson is believed to have the support of 48 Conservative MPs already and there are conflicting reports as to whether he will make it to the 100 required to stand on the ballot.
- Penny Mordaunt – 7/2
Mordaunt is the outside bet in this race but of the candidates rated as most likely to be on the ballot, she is the one that carries the least baggage heading into the race.
However, she is also the one that is likely to draw the least amount of support and it may well take something drastic for her to reach the required 100 nominations from fellow MPs.
However, she doesn’t have the broad support across the Conservative party and its wider membership that the other two candidates have and many MPs may well feel that if she were to win the ballot then their seats would be at an even greater risk.
Other candidates are rank outsiders starting at odds of 20/1 and at the moment, it does appear as if it will be a maximum of three, or maybe just two names on the ballot next week, unless the Tory party can get behind just one candidate leaving the ballot unnecessary.
However, in the meantime, the deafening calls for a General Election continue to ring out on Twitter, with many now feeling that it is time for a complete change of government.
