Week 15 of the NFL is in the history books. The Kansas City Chiefs are close to being confirmed as the AFC top seed in the playoffs, but the race for the NFC Top Seed just got interesting.
Very interesting.
Last weekend, the long-standing NFC top seed, the Detroit Lions, lost just their second game of the season. The Lions went down 48-42 to the Buffalo Bills.
That meant that the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings could further their claims to be the NFC top seed.
Both teams did precisely that. The Vikings were comfortable 30-12 winners against the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles came out 27-13 winners in the all-Pennsylvania clash against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
That means in the race for the NFC Top Seed, we have three teams all tied with a 12-2 record, with just three weeks of the regular season remaining.
The reason the race to be the AFC and NFC Top Seed is so important is because the top seed in each conference gains two big advantages over the other six teams in their respective conference playoffs.
While home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is an obvious benefit, having the bye week on Super Wildcard Weekend is also a huge boost.
It allows the two top seeds to rest players for an additional week ahead of the Divisional weekend of matches. This not only avoids players getting injured, it also allows players carrying injuries, knocks or other ailments additional time to recover.
Furthermore, their six other playoff opponents will face a very tough game during that week against strong opposition, risking players becoming injured and not allowing their other players additional time to rest.
There are some critics that argue that being the AFC or NFC Top Seed isn’t as beneficial as playing on Super Wildcard Weekend as it keeps the team in a routine and active.
Certainly, there have been games where a team that enjoyed a bye week on Super Wildcard Weekend, has started their Divisional Round playoff match sluggishly.
However, the general wisdom is that if you can land the AFC or NFC Top Seed, then the positives far outweigh the negatives. Furthermore, you may have taken a big step on the way to a potential Super Bowl spot.
The race for the AFC and NFC Top Seed will be decided over the final three weeks of the regular season. Let’s now take a look at the main contenders for the top seed spot in each of the conferences, beginning with the more open NFC Top Seed race.
Week 16 – @ Chicago Bears (4-10)
Week 17 – @ San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Week 18 – v Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
Week 16 – @ Washington Commanders (9-5)
Week 17 – v Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
Week 18 – v New York Giants (2-11)
Week 16 – v Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
Week 17 – v Green Bay Packers (10-4)
Week 18 – @ Detroit Lions (12-2)
In terms of the run-in, the Eagles have the easier run in on paper with just one game against teams with a winning record, compared to two for the Lions and three for the Vikings. However, all three of the Eagles matches are Divisional Games, whereas the Lions and Vikings have just two of those games from their three remaining fixtures.
However, the final fixture between the Vikings and Lions looms large both in terms of who will win the NFC North, but also in deciding who will be the NFC Top Seed.
The Eagles are currently on a ten-game winning streak, the Vikings seven and the Lions lost last week for just the second time this season. So in terms of fixtures and momentum, the Eagles seem to hold the advantage in the NFC Top Seed race.
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Week 16 – v Houston Texans (9-5)
Week 17 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
Week 18 – @ Denver Broncos (9-5)
Week 16 – v New England Patriots (3-11)
Week 17 – v New York Jets (4-10)
Week 18 – @ New England Patriots (3-11)
The Bills certainly have the much easier run in, facing three matches, two against the 3-11 Patriots and one against the 4-10 Jets and although both are divisional rivals, you would expect the Bills to win all three of these games, especially playing at home in two of them.
The Chiefs have a much tougher run in playing three teams who are either confirmed or likely to be playoff bound in the AFC. They also face two road games to finish the season at the Steelers and then the Broncos, as well as a tough home fixture against the Houston Texans, who have confirmed a playoff spot as winners of the AFC South.
This Chiefs are in a strong position, but that tricky finish could perhaps scupper their chances of home-field advantage in the playoffs.
*Bills get top seed by virtue of having beaten the Chiefs during the regular season.
Bet365 Sport is offering the following odds on which team will win the NFC Conference Championship and unsurprisingly, the teams in the race for the NFC Top Seed feature prominently.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the current 3.00 favourites, taking over from the Detroit Lions who are 3.25, while the Minnesota Vikings are 6.00.
Outside of those three the prices drop off sharply to the Green Bay Packers (9.00), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16.00), Los Angeles Rams (17.00) and Washington Commanders (23.00).
Despite having a 13-1 record, the Kansas City Chiefs are not the favourites to win the AFC Championship. The Buffalo Bills are now the 2.80 favourites to claim the AFC Super Bowl berth, ahead of the Chiefs who are 3.50.
The only other low-priced contender with bet365 Sport is the Baltimore Ravens at 4.75, with the Steelers 12.00, the Texans 13.00, Broncos 17.00 and Chargers 19.00.
The race for the AFC and NFC top seed will dominate the season's final three weeks. As other teams battle for a playoff berth, the top teams will know that the advantages of being the top seed in their conference is a prize well-worth striving to win.
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