Every football fan loves a player that finds the back of the net regularly. It is one of the main reasons why goalscorer betting at bet365 Sport is so popular.
For many punters, goalscorer betting is synonymous with picking the player who will score the first goal of the game.
It is easy to see why this particular goalscorer betting market is so popular. It is a very easy bet to follow, it also appears to be a relatively simple bet to predict.
After all, the players who score the most goals for each team are the players most likely to score the first goal in a game, aren’t they?
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Well, actually, that may not be the case. It is this belief which makes some goalscorer betting markets where goal order is important (i.e. first or last goal markets), far more difficult to hit regularly.
Let’s explain why this logic of top goalscorer equates to a good first goalscorer bet may not be the best method of goalscorer betting to employ.
Then we will move on to five simple goalscorer betting tips which will hopefully help you pick more winners!
Why Top Goalscorer Does Not Always Mean First Goalscorer?
If you love goalscorer betting then the names of the players you’ve probably backed in the Premier League will be very common to you.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Heung-min Son (Tottenham), Ivan Toney (Brentford), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), Alexander Isak (Newcastle United), Dominic Solake (Bournemouth) and so on.
But are these players always the pick to make when goalscorer betting? Especially if you are looking at the first goalscorer market?
Let’s take a closer look at what the statistics suggest. We have picked one of these players – Mo Salah – and this is how often the Liverpool man has netted the first (or last) goal in a game in the Premier League. (Data from early Feb 2024).
Mo Salah (Liverpool) – Goalscoring Stats 2023-24 season for Liverpool (to Feb 2024)
Games Played – 20
Let’s now say that we have placed a £10 bet on Mo Salah scoring first in all 20 of those games. So that would mean that we have wagered around £200 so far on the Egyptian King scoring first this season.
Goals Scored – 14
Salah has netted an impressive 14 times this season for Liverpool. That means 14 chances out of 20 games, so we’re sitting at a net loss of £60 so far before we even take a closer look at when and how Salah scored his goals.
Games Scored in – 10
But a closer inspection reveals that Salah has scored two goals in a game four times this season. So that actually means that Salah is only able to score the first goal in 10 of those 20 games, putting our loss at £100.
Let’s now take a look at the ten games in which Salah has scored and see if he scored the first or last goal in them.
- Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth – First Goal – Semenyo (3), Last Goal – Jota (62)
- Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa – First Goal – Szoboszlai (3), Last Goal – Salah (55)
- Liverpool 3-1 West Ham – First Goal – Salah (16), Last Goal – Jota (85)
- Brighton 2-2 Liverpool – First Goal – Adingra (20), Last Goal – Dunk (78)
- Liverpool 2-0 Everton – First Goal – Salah (75), Last Goal – Salah (90+7)
- Liverpool 3-0 Nottingham Forest – First Goal – Jota (31), Last Goal – Salah (77)
- Liverpool 3-0 Brentford – First Goal – Salah (39), Last Goal – Jota (74)
- Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool – First Goal – Mateta (57), Last Goal – Elliott (90+1)
- Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal – First Goal – Gabriel (4), Last Goal – Salah (29)
- Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle – First Goal – Salah 49, Last Goal – Salah (86)
So, we can see, in the 10 games he has scored for Liverpool so far this season, Salah has scored first just four times. He has actually been the Last Goalscorer in a game more often (5 times).
Is It Still a Profitable Bet To Back Salah to Score First or Last in a Game?
As we stated earlier, let’s assume that we have bet £10 on Salah to score first in every Liverpool game he has played in the Premier League this season. That’s 20 games, so a £200 spend.
Salah has scored the first goal in four of those 20 games, which means 4 winning bets, and 16 losses.
The key is the odds which are offered by bet365 Sport on Salah scoring the first goal. As he is a top goalscorer in the Premier League, his odds will be shorter than other players Usually around 2/1 or 3/1. Let’s assume the higher of these two odds.
At 3/1, Salah has won us our First Goalscorer bet four times. Which is a £30 win and a £10 stake return each time for a total return of £40. 4 x £40 is £160.
So, even if Salah was a 3/1 shot in every game (and there’s every chance his odds would be shorter in some), then you would still be down £40 on the season so far. If his odds were 2/1, then that would be an £80 loss.
But if we’d backed him to be the Last Goalscorer at 3/1, we’d be breaking even having spent £200 on bets and recouped £200 in winnings from the five times Salah scored the final goal in a game (First and Last Goalscorer odds tend to be the same for almost all players).
However, if he was at odds of 2/1, we’d still be making a £50 loss on the season.
It’s clear that betting on goalscorers isn’t as easy as it seems. So what are some tips to follow to help you land better wins in this tricky market?
5 Key Goalscorer Betting Tips
Outlined below are 5 simple Goalscorer betting tips which should help you make better judged and hopefully, more returns on this often tricky betting market.
1. Try To Place Your Bet Once The Teamsheets Are In (1hr Before The Game)
In the modern day, managers are readily willing to rotate even the best players in and out of a team. It can be frustrating to back a player to score first, last or at any time, only to find that they have been ‘rested’ by the manager.
To combat this, always make your goalscorer betting based on the line ups for the game you want to bet on. That means placing the bet in the hour before the game kicks off. This is the deadline for when the official team sheets have to be in with the officials.
Backing a player you know is starting a game is the first step to ensuring you have as much chance as possible of generating a return on the bet.
2. Target Games Which Have Plenty of Goal Potential
Of course, if you want to bet on goalscorers, you need goals. So the first thing to do when perusing the fixtures for a bet, is to do a little research and find out which games have the potential for plenty of goals.
Key stats to check here include home and away records for both teams, goals scored and conceded (both across the season and at home or away), past results between the two teams, the recent form of the two teams (especially the games in the last four weeks or so).
It’s also a good idea to keep tabs on the form of key players for both teams. Any information you can gather which will help refine your prediction, is always useful.
3. But Keep A Special Look Out For Games With High 0-0 Potential
Having said that we need goals, one of the paradoxes about goalscorer betting is that you can often get a great return by backing the No Goalscorer market on a goalless game.
Often No Goalscorer odds are between 16/1 and 20/1 and so if you can identify games that have less likelihood of goals being scored than average, then this can be a fantastic value bet to have in your armoury as it can produce big returns.
4. Make The Majority Of Goalscorer Bets Either Anytime or Each Way Goalscorer Bets
For me, this is the key tip when Goalscorer Betting. The added flexibility of an anytime or each way goalscorer bet gives you far more chance of generating a return on your bet.
Yes, the odds may not be as attractive as the First or Last goalscorer market, but the fact a player can score at any time more than makes up for that in my view, even if your winnings are only a percentage of your initial stake.
As we have seen, the data shows that even the best goalscorers score the first or last goal surprisingly infrequently in games. But they do score – hence anytime or each way goalscorer betting is your best long-term option.
5. Look Outside The Lowest Price Options For an Anytime or Each Way Goalscorer Bet
Another strategy is to look outside of the usual suspects when it comes to anytime or each way bets. You don’t have to go down too far on the list of players in a game to discover some good value prices for decent players to score at any time.
Good options to back here are defenders or midfielders who take penalties or attacking set pieces (such as Kieran Trippier, Trent Alexander-Arnold), defenders who are a threat from set pieces and corners (Wolves’ Craig Dawson is one of my personal favourites for this bet), or midfielders who tend to score goals from midfield, such as Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, Bruno Fernandes or James Maddison.
Join me next week for the second part of this article, when we examine whether Anytime Goalscorer or Each Way First Goalscorer is the best of the two more flexible goalscorer betting options available at bet365 Sport!
