Manchester City v Arsenal Premier League Title Decider Preview And Tips

By Ian John
April 24, 2023

On Wednesday this week, we have the one game that more than any other, will decide the eventual destiny of the Premier League title race.

The top two clash at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester as hosts Manchester City take on Arsenal having cut the Londoners gap at the top of the table to five points, with City having two games in hand on the league leaders.

Three draws in their last three games have seen Arsenal lose their big lead over City and those results, combined with Manchester City’s relentless winning form, means that Arsenal now come into this game not just only seeking to avoid defeat, but ideally needing to pick up three points to keep the destiny of the title in their own hands.

However, they must get that win against a team that they have arguably the worst recent record against compared to any other and against a City team that are bang in form too.

The action starts at 8pm on Wednesday evening and the game is being broadcast live on BT Sport, and bet365 Sport is offering extensive pre-match and in-play betting on the game too.

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So before we take a closer look at the game, let’s first examine how things stand in the Premier League at present between the top two.

Premier League Top Four

You can see the full Premier League table by clicking the previous link.

As you can see, Arsenal and Manchester City are some way clear of the chasing pack making this another two-horse race for the title.

The Gunners had held an 11-point lead over City at one point, but after three successive draws away to Liverpool and West Ham and then at home to Southampton, that gap has now been cut to five points, with City having two games in hand on the table toppers.

Should City win both those games, they would move a point clear of Arsenal as things stand, but a win in the game on Wednesday could see that turn into a four-point advantage.

A draw on Wednesday would see City top the table by a point, if they win their games in hand, while an Arsenal win would mean the Gunners would stay two points ahead of City if the Citizens were to win their two games in hand.

However, what makes this race intriguing is just who each team has to face and how many games each has to play over the forthcoming weeks.

Remaining Fixtures for Manchester City & Arsenal

Manchester City have a minimum of 11 games left to play in this season and that would be 12 if they were to reach the Champions League Final.

That number is considerably more than Arsenal’s remaining six fixtures, although it should be noted the Gunners EPL run-in does look considerably more difficult than City’s based on who both teams have remaining to play.

All remaining fixtures for both teams are shown below with games not in the Premier League shown in italics. The number in brackets is the Premier League position for each opponent at present.

Manchester City

  • Wed 26th Apr – (H) v Arsenal (1st)
  • Sun 30th Apr – (A) v Fulham (9th)
  • Wed 3rd May – (H) v West Ham United (13th)
  • Sat 6th May – (H) v Leeds United (16th)
  • Tue 9th May – (A) v Real Madrid (Champions League Semi Final 1st Leg)
  • Sun 14th May – (A) v Everton (18th)
  • Wed 17th May – (H) v Real Madrid (Champions League Semi Final 2nd Leg)
  • Sun 21st May – (H) v Chelsea (11th)
  • Wed 24th May – (A) v Brighton (8th)
  • Sun 28th May – (A) v Brentford (10th)
  • Sat 3rd Jun – (N) v Manchester United (FA Cup Final)
  • Sat 10th Jun – (N) – Potential Champions League Final (v Inter or AC Milan)


  • Wed 26th Apr – (A) v Manchester City (2nd)
  • Tue 2nd May – (H) v Chelsea (11th)
  • Sun 7th May – (A) v Newcastle United (3rd)
  • Sun 14th May – (H) v Brighton (8th)
  • Sat 20th May – (A) v Nottingham Forest (19th)
  • Sun 28th May – (H) v Wolves (13th)

With Arsenal having both Arsenal and Newcastle away, plus a tricky couple of home games with Chelsea and Brighton, the Gunners certainly have the tougher fixtures over the run in.

Manchester City v Arsenal – Latest Team News

Neither team has any players suspended for this game, but both do have injuries to contend with, Arsenal having more players absent from the game.

Manchester City’s only major absentee will be Nathan Ake with the Dutch defender missing a rare game through a thigh injury.

Arsenal’s biggest loss is defender William Saliba, with Rob Holding set to deputise. Granit Xhaka should be back after missing the Southampton game through illness but Elneny and Tomiyasu are both out with longer term injuries,.

Manchester City Predicted XI – (4-3-3)

  • GK – Ederson
  • DR – Walker
  • DL – Akanji
  • DC – Ruben Dias
  • DC – Stones
  • DMC – Rodri
  • MC – Gundogan
  • MC – De Bruyne
  • AMR – Mahrez
  • AML – Grealish
  • AC – Haaland

Walker will come in for Ake on the right side of defence most likely with City possibly adopting a 3-4-3 formation with Stones pushing on into a more advanced defensive midfield role alongside Rodri. This would leave Walker, Akanji and Ruben Dias as their main defensive trio.

Arsenal Predicted XI – (4-3-3)

  • GK – Ramsdale
  • DR – White
  • DL – Zinchenko
  • DC – Holding
  • DC – Gabriel
  • DMC – Thomas Partey
  • DMC – Xhaka
  • MC – Odegaard
  • AML – Martinelli
  • AMR – Saka
  • AC – Gabriel Jesus

I expect Mikel Arteta to bring Granit Xhaka back into midfield at the expense of Fabio Vieira for this game, while Rob Holding will likely deputise for the injured Saliba.

Head To Head Record

  • Played – 207
  • Manchester City Wins – 64
  • Draws – 45
  • Arsenal Wins – 98

Arsenal may have won more of the historical encounters between the two but Manchester City have been hugely dominant in recent years.

In fact of the last 15 games between the two, City have won 14 to Arsenal’s one. That includes two wins over the Gunners this season, one in the league at the Emirates, and one in the FA Cup at the Etihad.

Arsenal have not won at the Etihad since January 2015, when they landed a 0-2 win over their hosts.

Manchester City have not lost to Arsenal in any of their last 14 Premier League clashes, winning 12 and drawing two of those games.

Whichever way you look at the recent record between the two, it all points to a Manchester City win on Wednesday evening and it may well be that this mindset may be the most difficult part of this game for Arsenal and the players to overcome.

Top Tips For Manchester City v Arsenal

A look at all the evidence collected above for this game seems to paint the picture of another win for Manchester City in this encounter. Arsenal have not won in three games now, City come into this on the back of a run of fantastic games where they have been unbeaten in their last 17 games, scoring three or more goals in seven of their last eight (31 goals in total, conceding just four).

With that in my mind my top tips for this game are as follows:

  • Man City to win and both teams to score – 2/1
  • Correct Score – Manchester City to win 3-1 – 12/1
  • Jack Grealish (Manchester City) – Anytime Goalscorer – 3/1

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