We have reached the final week of the English League season, later than any other season has 
finished, but still with plenty to be decided at both ends of the table. Liverpool may already be proclaimed as the Champions, and we know after the weekend that Arsenal and Chelsea will contest the FA Cup Final on August 1st, but there is still plenty to be decided in the EPL this week.
In this article, we are going to look at the key games (and there are many) from those remaining on Matchday 37, as well as those to be played on Sunday for the completion of the season on Matchday 38, that could well have significant implications for teams moving forward into next season.
Looking for the 2022 English Premier League final week? Read here.
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Let’s now take a look at the main factors to be decided in the Premier League’s last week of action and the games and teams involved in each of those battles.
Premier League Final Week
What is already decided?
In the Premier League we already know that Liverpool are the Champions and will receive their trophy 
after the game with Chelsea at Anfield on Wednesday night. Manchester City have also secured second place in the table and will, now that the result of their appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport has been heard and judged, play in the Champions League net season after their ban was lifted.
At the other end of the table, we also know that Norwich City are confirmed as relegated into the Championship next season. Leeds United will be promoted back into the Premier League for the first time in 16 seasons with either West Brom or Brentford joining them automatically plus one more team from the playoffs.
However, yet to be decided in the EPL and to be resolved this week are the following issues.
Champions League/Europa League Qualification
While we know Liverpool and Manchester City will be in the Champions League next season, the remaining two places in this competition are up for grabs, plus at least two (or potentially three) Europa League slots.
The Europa League slots will go to the 5th and 6th placed teams and if Arsenal or Chelsea (The FA Cup finalists) win the FA Cup and finish in the top six, then the spot for the FA Cup winner will ho to the 7th placed team in the Premier League.
If Manchester United or Wolves win the Europa League, then they will go into the Champions League next season as Europa League winners regardless of their league position. If they win the Europa League and finish outside the top four, then the Premier League would have five qualifiers in the Champions League next season.
The teams realistically involved in each battle are as follows:
- Champions League Qualification – Chelsea, Leicester City, Man Utd
- Europa League Qualification – The Three Teams Above plus Tottenham, Wolves, Sheff Utd, Burnley and Arsenal.
Crucial Games in the Champions League/Europa League Qualification Battle
- Sheff Utd v Everton – Mon 20th July – 6pm
- Wolves v Crystal Palace – Mon 20th July – 8.15pm
- Aston Villa v Arsenal – Tue 21st July – 8.15pm
- Man Utd v West Ham – Wed 22nd July – 6pm
- Liverpool v Chelsea – Wed 22nd July – 8.15pm
- Chelsea v Wolves – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Leicester v Man Utd – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Southampton v Sheff Utd – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Arsenal v Watford – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Crystal Palace v Tottenham – Sun 26th July – 4pm
Scenarios
- If Chelsea win either of their two remaining games, then they will qualify for the Champions League net season.
- If Manchester United pick up a draw or win in their game in hand over Leicester, they will move into 4th in the table. However, it is likely that the result of the Leicester v Man Utd game on the final day of the season will decide who finishes 4th in the table. If Manchester United can beat West Ham by a large score, then their chances of qualifying will improve as it would force Leicester to try and beat United by the same scoreline or better.
- If Chelsea lose their last two games, then if Man Utd or Leicester both pick up one point or more each, then they would both qualify ahead of Chelsea on goal difference for the Champions League.
- There are a huge number of scenarios for the Europa League, but the situation will become clearer once the midweek games involving Man Utd, Sheff Utd, Wolves and Arsenal are played.
What is our tip?
We think Chelsea will do enough to claim one of the Champions League qualification spots but the other is much more open but we do feel Man Utd are in the driving seat now and should get it done. The Europa League places are much more open but we feel Wolves or Tottenham will most likely join Man Utd or Leicester in the competition next season. However, it could be both if Chelsea win the FA Cup rather than Arsenal. If Arsenal win the FA Cup, then they will qualify for the Europa League and the team finishing 7th will miss out.
Relegation
Who the two teams are that will go down with Norwich City are not yet known. We do know however 
that it will be two from three teams that will go down with the Canaries, Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Watford are the teams that remain in real danger, It is theoretically still possible that either Brighton or West Ham could go down, but it would require such a strange series of results, and such a massive swing in goal difference, that the likelihood of that happening is almost zero.
At the moment, Bournemouth lie 19th having played 37 games and they have 31 points. They are in real trouble and need to win their last game and then hope Watford lose both their games in order to remain in with a chance.
Aston Villa also have 31 points and the same -27 goal difference, but they have one more game to play. They are three points behind Watford who have also played 36 games but have 34 points and a -23 goal difference.
Crucial Games in the Relegation Battle
- Watford v Manchester City – Tue 21st July – 6pm
- Aston Villa v Arsenal – Tue 21st July – 8.15pm
- West Ham v Aston Villa – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Arsenal v Watford – Sun 26th July – 4pm
- Everton v Bournemouth – Sun 26th July – 4pm
Scenarios
- If Watford pick up one point in their two games remaining, they will definitely relegate Bournemouth.
- Aston Villa need to win at least one game more than Watford and improve their goal difference so that it is better than Watford to stay up. If Villa pick up four points and Watford lose both their games, then Villa will stay up.
- Bournemouth need to win away to Everton, improve their goal difference so that it is better than Watford’s and hope Aston Villa don’t pick up more than three points and improve their goal difference so that its is better than Bournemouth’s in order to stay up.
What is our tip?
I think you can call time on Bournemouth’s time in the Premier League, I can’t see Eddie Howe’s men escaping here. The more intriguing battle is between Villa and Watford and while I can’t see Watford adding to their points tally, I think that Villa won’t pick up more than one point either and as such, it would be Villa and Bournemouth as the teams joining Norwich in the Championship next season in my view.
